With COVID-driven headwinds still front and center, Paychex's (PAYX) recent rally may have come too far, too fast. And amid double-digit unemployment and a low rate environment, I am skeptical that we have well and truly reached the bottom. Though several KPIs have seen steady improvements since late April, any recovery is far from concrete at this juncture, especially given the recent resurgence in COVID-19 cases. My base case remains for an uneven recovery through FY21, which, relative to the lofty ~27x fwd P/E, suggests elevated downside risk relative to expectations. Coupled