2024-07-26 11:45:41 ET
Summary
- Real PCE for June 2024 increased by +0.22%, slightly above the median forecast of +0.20% growth.
- The overall PCE price index was slightly above expectations, while the core PCEPI was slightly above expectations.
- Personal spending accelerated in June, but remains below average on a 3-month basis.
- Prospects for a soft landing are reasonably good, based on both the inflation data and the consumer spending data.
- The Fed can afford to remain patient on rate cuts.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis ((BEA)), has just released its estimate for June 2024 US Personal Consumption Expenditures ((PCE)). Also known as “Personal Spending,” PCE directly accounts for over 60% of total US Gross Domestic Product ((GDP)), marking it a crucial indicator for assessing changing rates of expansion, contraction, and momentum in US economic activity.
According to the BEA, Real PCE (adjusted for inflation) increased by +0.22% in June — a slight upside surprise compared to the median forecast of professional economists, which expected +0.20% growth. Real PCE was expected to grow slightly below the historical median growth at the 44th percentile this month. Coming in marginally above expectations, Real PCE growth was just above the historical median growth, landing at the 46th percentile....
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PCE June 2024: Consistent With Soft Landing