Introduction
On Friday, a former opinion editor of Investor's Business Daily touted the +3.2% first-quarter GDP report to specifically “rebut” my “mini-recession” scenario.
Well, this morning personal income for February and March, and personal spending for March were reported, and not only did they validate my “mini-recession” scenario, they suggested it may not be over yet!
The NBER’s definition of a recession
To begin with, while the NBER does make use of real GDP in dating recessions, it is only one input.
As the NBER itself has said:
A recession is a significant decline