Retail Sales are reported higher by ~18%, well ahead of expectations, and equity markets are higher in response. Personal Income spikes due to government income replacement during the COVID-19 shutdown. We can trust that Personal Income which is April's data will return to trend and that Real Retail Sales are likely to do the same the next few months. With New York, California and New Jersey still to reopen, Real Retail Sales should continue to improve sharply subject to the pace states lift lockdowns.
The Great Depression still being forecasted by a number of pessimistic