UBS screens for the consumer names that would normally do well in a downturn, but carry risks.
The S&P 500 ( SP500 ) ( SPY ) finds itself in bear market territory and investors have turned to defensive sectors, according to BofA's survey of client flows.
"We identify stocks within the S&P 1500 Consumer Staples Index (SP1500-3010) which may not be as defensive as commonly perceived," strategist Keith Parker wrote in a note. "We include stocks whose inventory minus sales growth y/y is >0% and whose defensive score based on our proprietary framework ranks in the bottom 50th pctl."
The stocks are:
- J.M Smucker ( SJM ), Q1 '22 inventory vs. sales growth y/y 10%, defensive score 41%, pricing power z-score 0.05
- Tyson Foods ( TSN ), 5%, 44%, -0.13
- Boston Beer ( SAM ), 22%, 20%, 0.28
- MGP Ingredients ( MGPI ), 10%, 30%, -0.81
- Ingredion ( INGR ), %, 43%, -0.16
- Hormel ( HRL ), 9%, 43%, -0.06
- Archer-Daniels-Midland ( ADM ), 10%, 37%, -0.12
- B&G Food ( BGS ), 18%, 1%, -0.1
- e.l.f. Beauty ( ELF ), 35%, 18%, -0.06
- Celsius Holdings ( CELH ), 233%, 7%, 0.06
- Molson Coors ( TAP ), 9%, 28%, 0.12
- Edgewell Personal Care ( EPC ), 16%, 21%, 0.04
- Energizer ( ENR ), 42%, 44%, -0.11
- Kraft Heinz ( KHC ), 21%, 7%, -0.09
- Simply Good Foods ( SMPL ), 7%, 35%, 0.18
See the stocks with the most China exposure .
For further details see:
Riskiest defensive stocks as a recession looms