- Russia's energy ministry forecasts production to never surpass its previous peak.
- In its base case, Russia's oil production is expected to recover to ~11.1 mb/d and peak there. In its most bullish case, it rises to ~12.8 mb/d.
- We wrote last year that the Saudi price war combined with the demand drop from COVID-19 will result in permanent production loss worldwide including Russia.
- If Russia's decline profile is anything similar to that of the US (for smaller producers), we estimate that even if Rosneft produced all out, Russia will produce ~11 mb/d.
- But the Russian story is just one part of the bigger story, other non-OPEC ex-US production declines will also become more pronounced in the years ahead.
For further details see:
Russia's Oil Production To Never Return To The Peak? That's Not A Surprise