One thing that's been tracked for a while but might be somewhat useful in this type of market environment where everyone is looking for some "pandemic allegory" is just averaging expected 2020 and 2021 full-year S&P 500 growth rates.
Here is what the progression looks like:
- 4/24/20: +4% average expected growth rate of S&P 500 earnings for years 2020 and 2021
- 4/17/20: +5%
- 4/10/20: +5%
- 4/3/20: +6%
- 3/31/20: +8%
- 3/27/20: +7%
- 3/20/20: +8%
- 3/13/20: +9%
- 3/6/20: +9%
- 2/29/20: +10%
- 2/21/20: +10%
- 2/14/20: +10%
Source: Actual EPS estimate data courtesy of IBES by Refinitiv
The trend