2023-09-18 19:15:00 ET
Summary
- If investors in the S&P 500 were looking for direction from the newstreams for how to shape their portfolios, they didn't find much to influence them.
- The S&P 500 wrapped up the week at 4450.32, down 0.16% from where it closed the week before.
- As far as dividend futures are concerned, 2023-Q3 came to an end on Friday, 15 September 2023 and we are now in 2023-Q4.
If investors in the S&P 500 (Index: SPX ) were looking for direction from the newstreams for how to shape their portfolios, they didn't find much to influence them.
That's despite Friday, 15 September 2023 being a triple witching trading day for U.S. markets with the scheduled expiration of derivative contracts for stock options, stock index options, and stock index futures that are often associated with higher than average volatility.
Without much news to motivate them, the index pretty much just sat around, mostly trading within 1.1% of where it closed the week before. The S&P 500 wrapped up the week at 4450.32 , down 0.16% from where it closed the week before.
For the latest update to the dividend futures-based model 's alternative futures chart, we find the index dipped just enough to move into the lower half of the redzone forecast range. Which is to say stock prices are behaving very predictably.
As far as dividend futures are concerned, 2023-Q3 came to an end on Friday, 15 September 2023 and we are now in 2023-Q4. We'll continue updating the 2023-Q3 alternative futures chart for another two weeks, however, before we roll the chart forward to show 2023-Q4.
Meanwhile, here's what passed as market-moving headlines during the week that was:
Monday, 11 September 2023
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Fed officials expected to hold Federal Funds Rate steady next week and to start cutting interest rates in 2024:
- Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
- BOJ officials daring to think about ending never-ending stimulus:
- Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone:
- Nasdaq ends sharply higher as Tesla soars on AI optimism
Tuesday, 12 September 2023
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Bigger trouble developing in China:
- Wall Street ends lower as Oracle tumbles on weak forecast
Wednesday, 13 September 2023
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Expectations that Fed officials are done with rate hikes lock in for September 2023 meeting:
- JapanGov officials want higher wages, to put political pressure on BOJ officials:
- ECB officials don't see Eurozone inflation falling below 3%, are getting results they wanted from rate hikes:
- S&P 500 ends higher as CPI data cements bets for Fed pause
Thursday, 14 September 2023
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Former Fed official thinks inflation may force more rate hikes:
- Bigger stimulus developing in China:
- BOJ officials get flimsy reason to keep never-ending stimulus alive:
- ECB raises rate to record high and signals end of hikes
- Dow jumps ~1%, Nasdaq, S&P rise as Arm's big debut resurrects IPO market hopes
Friday, 15 September 2023
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Fed officials losing money because of their rate hikes, change in inflation expectations have investors expecting them to deliver one more hike:
- Signs stimulus getting traction in China, but bigger trouble still developing:
- ECB officials to start getting help from Eurozone governments in fighting inflation, don't want to cut rates:
- Nasdaq, S&P, Dow slump on triple witching day, put in mixed performance for the week
The CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed little change in the past week. It continues to show no rate hike when the Fed next meets on 19-20 September (2023-Q3).
After which, the tool projects the Fed will hold rates steady until 12 June (2024-Q2), which is expected to mark the first of a series of quarter-point rate cuts continuing at six- to twelve-week intervals through the end of 2024.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool 's forecast of annualized real growth rate during 2023-Q3 is +4.9%, falling from last week's prediction of +5.6% growth.
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
For further details see:
S&P 500 Sits Around Looking For Direction