4Q2021 Results out BMO today. TCE rates above $35.0k/day should drive EBITDA to $38.7 million despite higher opex. Today's 11:30am EST call should highlight 2021 achievements and positive 2022 outlook. Also, we will be looking for an update on 1Q2022 forward cover. Call number is (877) 870 9135 and code is 9389462.2022 EBITDA estimate reflects higher opex and last forward cover update. Last update on 1Q2022 forward cover was ~35% including six of 17 Capes fixed at ~$28.0k/day, but it should be higher now. Expect 1Q2022 weakness with a 2Q2022 pickup. Our 2022 EBITDA estimate of $101.9 million is based on TCE rates of $24.9k/day. Typical seasonality factored in, with TCE rates of $19.5k/day in 1Q2022, $23.5k/day in 2Q2022, $30.0k/day in 3Q2022 and $26.5k/day in 4Q2022. Given the current Cape FFA curve of $33.7k/day in 2Q2022 and $37.3k/day in 3Q2022, our estimates have an upward bias and we will update post call.Limited financing this year and well positioned to fund buy backs and/or dividends. Financial flexibility is good after several refinancing and we expect added buy backs of convert debt and stock, which limit potential share issuance. A quarterly dividend also appears probable by yearend 2022.Dry bulk market remains volatile, but intermediate outlook appears promising. Positive macro and micro trends are intact, but near-term volatility triggered by invasion of Ukraine and Chinese moves to limit inflation. While down recently due to weather disruptions and other factors and forward cover is low, Cape TCE rates have bounced back, and the outlook remains favorable based on expanding demand, upcoming emission regulations and a low order book.Maintain Outperform rating and price target of $1.85/share. While the Cape market has been volatile and the stock is down 12% over the past five months, we believe that the risk/reward profile is attractive. SHIP headed into 2022 well positioned, with an expanded Cape fleet, a bias toward time charters with indexed rates to capture upside rate optionality and moderating financial leverage. Also, buy backs likely to remain focused on retiring convert debt, with stock buy backs and dividends close seconds. Read More >>