Debt refinancing boosts liquidity by $4.3 million. Debt secured by the 2012-built Partnership Cape was refinanced with a sale/leaseback with an eight year term. The Partnership will be sold and leased back in March. The lease of $21.3 million will pay off 210 basis point higher cost debt and boost liquidity by $4.3 million. The lease payments will be $590k/quarter and there is a buyback option of $2.4 million at the end of the lease.Fine tuning 4Q2021 EBITDA and 2022 EBITDA estimate to reflect higher opex and current market conditions. 4Q2021 TCE rates should be above $35.0k/day, but opex is higher so EBITDA moves to $38.7 million. 1Q2022 forward cover of ~35% included six of 17 Capes fixed at ~$28.0k/day, but 1Q2022 weakness expected with a 2Q2022 pickup. Our new 2022 EBITDA estimate of $101.9 million is based on TCE rates of $24.9k/day. Typical seasonality factored in, with TCE rates of $19.5k/day in 1Q2022, $23.5k/day in 2Q2022, $30.0k/day in 3Q2022 and $26.5k/day in 4Q2022.Limited financing this year and well positioned to fund buy backs. Financial flexibility is good and we expect added buy backs of convert debt and stock, which will serve to limit potential share issuance. A quarterly dividend also appears probable by yearend 2022.Dry bulk market remains volatile, but intermediate outlook appears promising. Positive macro and micro trends are intact, but near-term volatility triggered by invasion of Ukraine and Chinese moves to limit inflation. While TCE rates dropped recently due to weather disruptions and other factors and forward cover is low, the outlook remains favorable based on expanding demand, upcoming emission regulations and a low order book.Maintain Outperform rating and price target of $1.85/share. While the Cape market has been volatile and the stock is down 19% over the past four months, we believe that the risk/reward profile is attractive. SHIP headed into 2022 well positioned, with an expanded Cape fleet, a bias toward time charters with indexed rates to capture upside rate optionality and moderating financial leverage. Also, the buy back program is likely to remain focused on retiring convert debt, with stock buy backs and dividends close seconds. Read More >>