Stock buy back program announced. The Board of Directors approved a stock buy back program of up to $17 million. At the current price, the buy back equals ~16.4 million shares, or close to 10% of the current shares outstanding of ~168.5 million. We believe that this positive move should help support the stock price, especially if the buy back program is active.Buy back program reinforces our view that equity issuance near the current price is unlikely. As highlighted in recent notes, the financial position has improved markedly, and we believe that no additional equity will be issued despite the F-3 filing on July 2nd. After pending transactions close, pro forma 3Q2021 cash should be $45-$50 million, or close to 2Q2021 cash of $56 million. Financial flexibility is good and refinancing convert debt of $38.2 million might be the next move on the financing front that remove a potential overhang.No change to 2021 EBITDA estimate of $73.0 million based on TCE rates of $23.4k/day. About 59% of 3Q2021 available days of 1,448 are fixed at ~$28.5k/day due to time charters and options exercised to fix eight Capes for 3Q2021. Assuming the remaining 592 unfixed days earn ~$29.9k/day, the 3Q2021 TCE rate would be $28.9k/day, which is in line with our current 3Q2021E EBITDA. 4Q2021 visibility is limited, but four Capes are fixed at TCE rates north of $30.0k/day.Remain positive on dry bulk market, including Capes. Even though Cape TCE rates have been volatile into 3Q2021, current rates are moving toward $40k/day and we believe that rates are likely to remain high in 2H2021. Once the last acquisition and one sale close this quarter, the Cape fleet will total 16. Operating leverage will also expand, with a $1.0k/day change in Cape TCE rates impacting cash flow/EBITDA by $5.5 million, or ~8% of our current 2021 EBITDA estimate.Maintain Outperform rating and price target of $1.50/share. We are encouraged by the favorable response to the buy back program and believe that there should be follow through if the buy back program is active. The risk/reward profile remains favorable, especially after the modest 6% gain in 2Q2021 has been offset by the 7% loss in 3Q2021 to date. The expansion of the Cape fleet and a bias toward time charters with indexed rates should help capture upside rate optionality and lower financial leverage by yearend 2021. Read More >>