Virtual non-deal roadshow highlighted that SHIP has moved onto firmer ground. Late last week, we hosted a virtual NDR with management, CEO Stamatis Tsantanis and CFO Stavros Gyftakis. The company presentation and Q&A session highlighted significant progress this year. A replay should be available shortly at www.channelchek.comStock buy back program established, but refinancing convert debt makes more sense as next move on financing front. A buy back program reinforces our view that equity issuance near the current price is unlikely despite the F-3 filing on July 2nd. We don't think that the buy back program has been active yet, as retiring the convert debt appears to be the highest priority since it is convertible at $1.20/share.Fine tuning 2021 EBITDA estimate to $75.2 million from $73.0 million based on TCE rates of $23.9k/day, up from $23.4k/day mainly due to higher 4Q2021 outlook. No change to our 3Q2021E EBITDA of $30.3 million and TCE rates of $29.0k/day. 4Q2021 visibility has improved with seven Capes fixed at a TCE rate north of $30.0k/day, or forward cover of ~44% of available days. We have factored in some typical seasonality, but are still increasing our 4Q2021E EBITDA to $27.1 million based on TCE rates of $26.5k/day.Staying positive on Cape market. Even though Cape TCE rates remain volatile, demand appears firm based on infrastructure projects and global stimulus programs. At the same time, the order book remains muted, and the January 1, 2023 implementation of new carbon emission regulations (EEXI) could trigger slow steaming that effectively lowers supply. Operating leverage has expanded, and a $1.0k/day change in Cape TCE rates has a $5.5 million impact, or ~8% of our 2022 EBITDA estimate.Maintain Outperform rating and increasing price target to $1.70/share from $1.50/share. As highlighted in the virtual NDR, the fleet expansion and improved financial position create a more stable operating platform. While the lack of buy back activity might disappoint some investors, refinancing the convert debt and paying a dividend are higher priorities at the current stock price. While the stock is up 131% this year, the risk/reward profile remains very favorable. The expansion of the Cape fleet and a bias toward time charters with indexed rates should help capture upside rate optionality and lower financial leverage by yearend 2021. Read More >>