Dry bulk market remains volatile, but intermediate outlook appears promising. In a webinar hosted by Capital Link, CEO Stamatis Tsantanis and CFO Stavros Gyftakis highlighted positive macro and micro trends. The dry bulk market looks favorable based on expanding demand, upcoming emission regulations and a low order book. While TCE rates dropped recently due to weather disruptions and seasonality and the forward cover is low, the outlook remains favorable. Absent acquisitions, other shareholder friendly moves, like added buy backs and/or dividends, are probable.Entering 2022 with positive momentum. SHIP starts the year with a larger Cape fleet of 17 and an improved financial position. The end result is a more stable platform that is well positioned to benefit from elevated Cape TCE rates.4Q2021 EBITDA looks reasonable, and we are fine tuning 2022 EBITDA estimate to reflect a weak start to year. On the webinar, the current TCE rate environment was discussed. 4Q2021 TCE rates should be above $35.0k/day, or slightly better than forward cover. 1Q2022 forward cover of ~35% includes six of 17 Capes fixed at ~$28.0k/day and the year is off to a slow start. Our new 2022 EBITDA estimate of $103.0 million is based on TCE rates of $24.7k/day. Typical seasonality factored in, with TCE rates of $20.0k/day in 1Q2022, $23.5k/day in 2Q2022, $30.0k/day in 3Q2022 and $24.5k/day in 4Q2022.Limited financing this year and well positioned to fund buy backs. Refinancing over the near term is limited with only $35.1 million of debt maturing in 4Q2022. The remaining $5 million buy back program is likely to focus on retiring convert debt, with stock buy backs a close second. Also, a quarterly dividend is probable by yearend.Maintain Outperform rating and price target of $1.85/share. While the Cape market has been volatile and the stock is down 39% over the past four months, we believe that the risk/reward profile is attractive. SHIP heads into 2022 well positioned, with an expanded Cape fleet, a bias toward time charters with indexed rates to capture upside rate optionality and moderating financial leverage. Also, the remaining buy back program of $5 million is likely to focus on retiring convert debt, with stock buy backs a close second. Read More >>