- Industrial production has a 100-year-plus record of measuring the production side of the economy.
- Similarly, retail sales have a 70-year-plus record of measuring the consumption side of the economy.
- In September, both surprised, as production failed to confirm leading indicators and declined, while sales boomed despite the ending of emergency Congressional assistance.
- I am inclined to take both with extra grains of salt as potentially impacted by pandemic-related seasonal distortions.
For further details see:
September Production And Consumption Measures Both Surprise - In Opposite Directions