2024-05-10 11:58:12 ET
Summary
- The US economy is likely to enter a recession by the end of 2024, leading to a recessionary bear market for the S&P 500.
- There is some early evidence that the labor market is starting to deteriorate.
- Factors such as excess pandemic savings, increased immigration, and fiscal spending have delayed the recession.
The US economy is likely to slip into a recession by the end of 2024, and thus the S&P 500 is on the verge of a recessionary bear market.
Why a Recession?
The Fed was forced to hike interest rates in 2022/2023 from 0-0.25% to 5.25-5.50% in response to the rising inflationary pressures. As a result, the yield curve inverted, as the short-term interest rates exceeded the long-term interest rates....
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SPY: Get Ready For A Recessionary Bear Market