We see challenging crosscurrents ahead. Macro uncertainty is rising amid geopolitical frictions, and asset prices are up. Yet, monetary policy has pivoted toward easing, and many risk asset valuations still look reasonable. This leads us to lower our growth outlook and become modestly more defensive, while still favoring selected risk assets.
Chart of the week
Output gap and stages of the U.S. business cycle, 1965-2019
Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Refinitiv Datastream, July 2019.
Notes: This chart shows an estimate of the U.S. output gap (that is, GDP as a percentage of potential