- So far, 2021 isn’t looking too different from where we ended 2020. But we see the second quarter bringing greater economic re-awakening, underpinning our constructive outlook for U.S. stocks.
- While future rate-related panics are likely, we expect rates to remain low for some time as central banks globally look to maintain support and see economies to full recovery.
- Markets are priced for positive vaccine news, and while positivity is our base case, any disappointments in vaccine supply, distribution or adoption - or increased risk from virus variants - could stoke volatility.
- Fourth-quarter earnings strongly beat consensus analyst estimates as well as what was mostly conservative company guidance. We generally see the pattern continuing this year.
- We give cyclical stocks and reopening plays in general the advantage for the moment, while remaining watchful for signs of a cycle transition as the recovery moves forward - potentially returning the upper hand to growers.
For further details see:
Taking Stock: Q2 2021 Equity market Outlook