- OPEC+ won't meet its production quota in 2022.
- Looking at crude export data, OPEC + Russia have increased crude exports by ~1.8 million b/d. But all of that and more came from Saudi, UAE, and Kuwait (+2 mb/d).
- Even Russia is seeing a pause in production increase despite having higher production quota. The same goes for Iraq.
- IEA's oversupply assumption in 2022 assumes OPEC+ to meet its production quota. With oil demand surprising to the upside and supplies likely disappointing to the downside, IEA's oversupply forecast will not pan out.
For further details see:
The Biggest Oil Market Surprise For 2022 Is OPEC+'s Inability To Meet Its Quota