2024-02-08 23:18:02 ET
Summary
- Although a number of economic indicators have shown weakness, consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and government spending have helped fuel economic growth.
- Because low interest rates, extreme monetary stimulus, and pandemic fiscal stimulus have ended, the economy is at a critical point.
- Going forward, some especially important economic measures to watch are corporate profits, weekly unemployment claims, financial stress, and consumer spending.
No recession, but most Americans remain pessimistic about the economy
A recent January 2024 YouGov poll showed that 41 percent of Americans believe we are in a recession, while another 40 percent believe the economy is "poor." In addition, 40 percent of respondents feel that they are financially worse off than a year ago (read here ).
In reality, the economy had steady growth in 2023. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), in its summary of the 2023 economy, states: "Real GDP increased 2.5 percent in 2023 (from the 2002 annual level to the 2023 annual level), compared to an increase of 1.9 percent in 2022" (read here ).
However, if you look at the increase in real GDP from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2023, the increase is 3.1 percent....
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For further details see:
The Economy Is Not At A Recession Point, But Here Is How That Could Change