2024-06-07 15:30:41 ET
Summary
- While the labor market has weakened, it appears we have reached full employment versus over employment.
- The job creation trend has slowed, with job openings outpacing number of unemployed at a three-year low.
- Despite full employment, wage growth is problematic and may be more political in nature.
Introduction
Earlier today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the employment situation for the US economy in the month of May. As has been the case for many labor market reports, the report exceeded expectations and reduced the probability of a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve. While we are not in a weak labor market yet, I do believe the May employment report demonstrates as close to a full-employment scenario as we have seen since the pandemic and further deterioration may begin to weaken the broader economy....
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For further details see:
The May Jobs Report: From Over Employment To Full Employment