- Natural gas prices are jumping higher today as the market is starting to realize the shortage on the horizon.
- By November, we see ~3.4 Tcf in storage, but if this summer is warmer than normal, then we could be seeing sub-3.1 Tcf.
- Lower 48 gas production remains ~3 Bcf/d below the peak of 2021. The longer it takes production to recover, the higher the implied existing decline rate.
- We are playing this by staying long Antero. It will benefit from both the shortage in natural gas and NGLs.
For further details see:
The Natural Gas Rally Is Well Supported By Fundamentals