First things first – Caterpillar (CAT) is a great company. While it operates in deeply cyclical markets and has had to withstand incoming competitive entrants from China, CAT has an almost-impossible-to-beat global distribution network and incredible brand value, not to mention leading share in a large portion of the markets where it chooses to compete and excellent margins relative to most of its competitors.
The issue I have today is a combination of valuation and Street expectation. I believe non-residential construction is likely to weaken in North America and Western Europe in 2021,