- The sell-off in the Treasury market is following the footsteps of other mini-bear markets that have happened at the tail end of recessions.
- Barring some economic fireworks, it is entirely likely that yields will enter range-trading mode. For now, the question remains as to what levels the bear phase stalls out at.
- For those of us who are believers in rate expectations, the valuation story is straightforward: look at the instantaneous forward curve, compare it to our personal Fed forecast, and buy or sell duration based on that.
For further details see:
Treasury Sell-Off Following Past Patterns