In a recent article of mine, published December 22, 2019, I drew attention to the potential near-term downside risk for the USD/JPY pair. The downside risk was signaled by the bond market, as the one-year interest rate spread for USD/JPY (i.e., the difference between the one-year government bond yields of the United States and Japan) had clearly diverged with USD/JPY spot prices.
In the article referenced, I produced the following chart, which clearly showed this divergence (the red line being the interest rate differential, set against the vertical y-axis).
(Chart created by the author using