- Fundamentals are in place for a major EM crisis, and I see reasonable probabilities of an unfolding crisis in Turkey providing the catalyst.
- Meanwhile, complacency in "developed" markets remains formidable. Is systemic crisis even possible while the major central banks are running full speed ahead with zero rates and QE?
- Inflationary pressures are mounting globally. Turkey, Brazil, and Russia have all recently moved to raise rates to counter a significant jump in inflation. Mexico and others will likely follow.
For further details see:
Weekly Commentary: Double Trouble