- High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy.
- The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators.
- Although measures of economic stress have generally been increasing, they are nowhere near levels associated with any actual downturn.
- The West generally, and the US particularly, appear to be reacting to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with prudent steps; there is no indication of unnecessary economic distress as a result.
- The conclusion remains: no recession during 2022.
For further details see:
Weekly Indicators: In Which The Wisdom Of John Quincy Adams Remains True 200 Years Later