2024-01-27 08:00:00 ET
Summary
- Long leading indicators have shown improvement, particularly in interest rates and credit spreads.
- Short leading indicators are mixed, with the big decline in new orders and temporary staffing being of especial concern.
- Coincident indicators have also hit an air pocket, with the continuing shortfall in tax withholding being a particular concern.
Purpose
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to "mark your beliefs to market." In general, I go in order of long leading indicators, then short leading indicators, then coincident indicators.
A note on methodology
Data is presented in a "just the facts, ma'am" format with a minimum of commentary so that bias is minimized.
Where relevant, I include 12-month highs and lows in the data in parentheses to the right. All data taken from St. Louis FRED unless otherwise linked....
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For further details see:
Weekly Indicators: The Economy Hits An Air Pocket