- The odds of a US economic contraction in the immediate future remain low, but blowback from the Ukraine war and elevated inflation risk could quickly change the calculus.
- Incoming data in the weeks ahead could be unusually critical inputs for deciding how or if to change the current low-recession risks analysis.
- A key variable that could negatively change the outlook: increasingly hawkish policy tightening by the Federal Reserve as it tries to tamp down elevated inflation risk.
For further details see:
Will Low U.S. Recession Risk Rise In The Months Ahead?