- First quarter was the worst on record for U.S government bonds.
- With the recent 8.5% CPI print, most think the 10-year at sub 3% is crazy. Even more so for the 30-year at a similar yield.
- A year or two ago, consensus could not even fathom $80 oil, despite the basic math on supply pointing to a shortfall, irrelevant of a war.
- In a similar fashion, the math points to lower yields ahead and it's being ignored. In the coming years, low inflation and even deflation are real possibilities.
- Regardless of whether or not we get low or no inflation, here's why today's rates are closer to a ceiling than a floor.
For further details see:
Yes, 3% Treasuries Are A Bargain With 8% Inflation