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At the end of 2019, had we been told that a two-year pandemic was about to begin, we would have found it impossible to predict the set of returns that followed in subsequent years. Historically, “tightening,” or “over-tightening,” policy was about corrallin...
The defining characteristics of the economic outlook for 2022 could be more about the composition of global growth than its trend. Year 2022 will be marked by the Fed's tapering and fading fiscal stimulus. The potential for spread pick-up and ratings boosts in the structured credi...
The EMBI High Yield Index yields 330 bps above the U.S. High Yield Index, which is around two standard deviations relative to the last five years’ average. Apart from China and the frontier markets, there are opportunities in more “traditional” EM countries. I...
In the sovereign space, we have a strong preference for BB- or B-rated sovereigns because of the valuation that’s currently offered. On the corporate side, we have a preference in between investment-grade and high-yield rated debt. On the residential side, fundamentals are ...
Taking an active approach in fixed income will be key to finding investment success in the upcoming year. In 2022, we expect the market narrative to transition to the traditional expansionary phase of the business cycle. We believe 2022 will be a strong year for “rising sta...
In high yield, investors tend to think about it as a risky way to play fixed income. A traditional 60/40 portfolio generates somewhere about 8.7% annualized returns over the last few decades. We think investors should really look at high-yield investing as a way to de-risk their e...
Performance of emerging markets local currency bonds has been negatively impacted by the U.S. dollar’s strength since mid-year, despite the higher real yields and upside growth surprises in many emerging markets. Currency returns can be volatile, and external factors can have a...
We are moving from the recovery phase of the current cycle to its middle phase. But what kind of cycle is it likely to be? After 40 years of declining inflation and interest rates, the direction of travel appears to be changing, due to new central bank policy priorities, China’...
We see price pressures to persist in 2022, mostly driven by the unusual restart dynamics. Eventually, we see a higher inflation regime than pre-Covid. U.S. consumer price index (CPI) jumped more than expected in October, bringing annual inflation rate to 6.2%, the highest level in thr...
We’ve seen a lot of quantitative easing by the Fed. Rates are already at zero, and there’s been a lot of fiscal stimulus that’s been pumped into the system. And we think in this environment, given where valuations are overall, you’re better off leaning more...
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2024-05-17 15:58:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-07 06:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-18 01:12:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...