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Summary In the decades I have managed money professionally, I have used countless indicators of stock market direction. After years of frustration from failing to find one sophisticated enough to be useful, but simple enough to communicate to others, I created my own. Reward Opportu...
Summary IEI targets a specific range of the US Treasury yield curve. Specifically, 3-7 year bonds. The Fed's sharp series of interest rate hikes during 2022, and reaction of the bond market to those actions, puts this ETF in a very interesting spot on the curve. Bonds in this maturi...
Summary BlackRock Enhanced Government Fund is a fixed income closed-end fund. The CEF comes from the BlackRock suite but is on the small side with only a $40 mm AUM. The vehicle has roughly a 50/50 Treasuries-Agency MBS split, with 30% leverage on top. What is particular about t...
Summary The recent spike in inflation and a very late response from the Federal Reserve make an update of realized excess returns on Treasury bonds a critical exercise. For realized excess returns, it is still true that it has always been better to hold 10, 20, and 39-year bonds than to...
Summary The Fed’s interest rate and liquidity tools are blunt instruments, particularly in a service-oriented economy. If inflation indeed moderates from here, it is likely that interest rate volatility moderates alongside it. Monetary policy has created the asset-on/asset-of...
Summary This week’s simulation shows that the most likely range for the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill yield in ten years is from 1% to 2%. There is a 24.59% probability that the 3-month yield falls in this range, a change from 23.80% one week before. The negative 2-year/10-year ...
Summary SHV invests in US Treasury Bills with maturities from 3 months to 12 months. After 15 years of rarely meriting investor attention, SHV finds itself in the "sweet spot" of a historically rough market environment. The yield curve's peak is right in the neighborhood that SHV pa...
Summary Reducing my exposure to SPY. Adding exposure to EFA. US equities still trending lower. Happy New Year everyone. In this month’s article I outline why I am decreasing my January’s allocation to the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF ( SPY ) to 20%, adding ...
Summary US stocks, large and small, led markets to the downside to cap off 2022. An early-month rally in bonds swiftly faded as rates rose into year-end. All eyes will be on the upcoming corporate earnings season, while foreign equities sport compelling valuations. It wa...
Summary At the close of Refinitiv Lipper’s fund-flows week, U.S. broad-based equity indices reported negative performance for the second week in three. The 10-two Treasury yield spread remained negative (-0.53), marking the one-hundred-and-twenty-second straight trading session w...
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2024-06-29 14:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-19 15:52:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-09 16:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...