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Summary The Federal Reserve continued to raise short-term rates in their battle to slow inflation in the third quarter. The end of the quarter saw Hurricane Ian deal a lethal blow to southwest Florida. The economic impact is severe and portends a big downshift in the economy o...
Summary Money supply growth fell again in August, dropping to a 36-month low. Money supply growth tends to begin growing again before the onset of recession. Another indicator of recession appears in the form of the gap between M2 and TMS. When the difference between M2 an...
Summary After a series of hikes, the Fed’s short-run interest rate target lies between 3.0 and 3.25 percent. The problem with Fed policy isn’t excessive tightness, it’s excessive inscrutability. Don’t expect a smooth ride, let alone a soft landing, ...
Summary Inflation as measured by government indices (e.g., CPI, PCE Deflator) is a lagging indicator of true inflation. True inflation is defined as the loss of purchasing power of a currency. Right now that is just not the case: the dollar is soaring against nearly every currency...
Summary We believe it is unlikely that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will navigate a pivot to a less-hawkish stance before early in 2023. We expect China to grow at a meager 2%-3% pace in 2022, with the potential for these risks to bleed into 2023, as a slowing developed-market consumer...
Summary In September 2022, there is no denying that inflation is back, and with a vengeance, though we can still debate how quickly it will fade, and to what level. Since 2008, it has become fashionable to attribute all movements in interest rates to Fed action or inaction, and as...
Summary Our US Equity ETF portfolio has a cash or cash equivalents target of 47%. Inflation may be peaking, but it is doing so at a much higher level than the Fed appears willing to accept. We are continuing with our strategically driven large cash reserve. We're eva...
Summary Last week, markets finally priced in the fact that inflation is not going away easily or soon. Consumers are feeling inflation, but may also be overly optimistic about the future. The most recent Survey Data from the New York Fed shows consumers' 1-year inflation expectati...
Summary The British pound UK gilts – the equivalent of U.S. Treasuries – had outsized moves on Friday with 10-year gilts surging as much as 50 basis points in a single day, while the pound cratered. The outsized Fed rate hikes in the middle of all this volatility are...
Summary Stocks are now back down to the lows set in June and sentiment is as negative now as it was then. There is a long list of technical items that have hit levels or rates of change we associate with bottoms, short- or long-term. The economic data last week was mostly abou...
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2024-05-29 00:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-09 13:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-20 13:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...