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Summary Money supply growth fell again in September, dropping to a 37-month low. Money supply growth can often be a helpful measure of economic activity, and an indicator of coming recessions. Since January of this year, the Fed has raised the target federal funds rate from .2...
Summary The core PCE price index jumped 5.1% in September, compared to a year ago, the fourth-highest reading in this cycle, behind January, February, and March. In terms of the Fed’s 2% inflation target as measured by core PCE, inflation is worsening and now measures over ...
Summary In recent decades, every instance in which the economy contracted two quarters in a row has coincided with a recession. The Fed tends to keep an even closer eye on the 10-year/3-month spread, and even that is now pointing to recession as well. The Fed has temporarily s...
Summary Here are my big three for investors to consider in the fourth quarter of 2022: recessionary fears, high inflation, and slowing growth. As we analyze the risk of recession in the United States, we must consider whether the country can shift into a more normal expansion. ...
Summary Labor markets appear to be one of the primary determinants of Fed policy at the moment, with tight conditions and concern over a wage-price spiral driving higher interest rates. Labor markets may not actually be as tight as they appear on the surface though, and there is e...
Summary Why we may be facing a calamitous recession vs a run-of-the-mill one. The Fed's next move on rates may be more important than others. Is it time to start reflecting on the impact rates are having on the real economy? The U.S. Federal Reserve has been ...
Summary Why supply chains are no longer behind our inflation troubles. As inflation pressures continue, the wisdom of rates hikes questioned. With U.S. core inflation still rising, odds grow of another big rate hike. The latest U.S. inflation data shows price...
Summary As I've argued in recent posts, there's plenty of evidence to suggest the Fed has already tightened by enough to bring inflation down. The dollar is super-strong, real yields have risen sharply, the yield curve is inverted, commodity prices are plunging, and the housing ma...
Summary The “hotter” than expected September CPI report has basically eliminated the premise of another Powell Pivot any time soon. Service-related inflation is now the problem for the Fed. Since rate hikes began in March, the “services less energy services...
Summary How far will policy rates need to go to tame inflation and is a recession imminent? Until central banks see a significant decline in wage growth, they’re likely to keep conditions tighter for longer. There’s evidence that conditions may continue to suppor...
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2024-05-29 00:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-09 13:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-20 13:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...