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Summary December FOMC meeting point to policymakers already starting to take a less aggressive stance to policy tightening compared to the prior four 75 basis point hikes. In line with PMI data, the latest official data signalled a slowdown in the pace of Consumer Price Inflation during...
Summary Like it or not, all major stock indices are beholden to Fed policy decisions. As I've sometimes had to learn the hard way, "don't fight the Fed". Institutional investors are naturally well aware of this, and they often use futures to back into an implied Fed Funds rate. This giv...
Summary Since the middle of 2022 until now, gold has become decidedly inversely correlated with the U.S. dollar. On the latest downswing in the dollar, gold began its latest run. Taking a look at key reasons why this inverse correlation is likely to continue. Over long per...
Summary PPI is cooling off, due largely to the fact that the big PPI surges from a year ago are being “cut off” in the annual calculation. Core PPI, excluding food, energy and trade margins, rose just 0.3% in November and 4.9% in the past 12 months. ISM announced that its ...
Summary Perspective is the number one biggest shortcoming in the coverage of financial and market news. I examine perspectives on inflation, rates and recessions. Lack of perspective stems from two causes: the lack of (or willingness to dig for) historical comparisons, or the...
Summary Recession is foretold, in our view, as central banks crush demand to bring down inflation. We think markets are wrong to expect them to later come to the rescue. U.S. stocks fell and the Treasury yield curve inverted its most since the early 1980s. We see recent moves as reflect...
Summary Demand destruction is weighing on prices globally as financial conditions tighten. The good news is that headline CPI is set to follow crude lower in 2023. This Wednesday, any dovish nods out of the FOMC could spark a year-end relief rally in risk markets. Demand d...
Summary Overall, I think the markets had gotten to peak hawkishness and people were under-positioned because they were expecting a more and more hawkish Fed. This may be the tightest labor market, quite frankly, we’ve seen in five decades. This is the first proper recessionar...
Summary Are we seeing the beginning of a reversal in the decline in stocks, and rise in yields, which have haunted investors this year? If the rebound in equities continues into Q1, it’s possible that leading indicators will flip, offering more convincing support for the idea of ...
Summary The Fed’s mandate is stable prices and maximum employment. For now, employment, wages and inflation momentum are still too strong to warrant a Fed pivot. If Powell and the Fed fail to tame inflation, then their heads are on the chopping block. They know this and they will...
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2024-05-29 00:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-09 13:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-20 13:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...