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2023-06-22 10:45:00 ET Summary Fed funds futures continue to lean toward a one-and-done scenario, based on the highest estimated probability estimates for the next three Fed meetings. A simple model using unemployment and consumer prices to profile Fed policy suggests that a moder...
2023-06-21 03:20:00 ET Summary Both major US monthly inflation reports out last week reflected even lower rates than most pundits had expected. Following the two inflation reports and other indicators, the Fed decided to pause hiking key interest rates further, but the “dot...
2023-06-20 23:30:00 ET Summary Breakeven Inflation represents the market’s expectation of the average annual inflation rate over a specific period. Market participants and policy makers closely monitor breakeven inflation rates as they provide insights regarding future infl...
2023-06-20 22:45:00 ET Summary As inflation begins to moderate, Olga and Hugo examine the structural forces shaping the medium-term outlook in four categories: energy, housing, goods, and services. They uncover dynamics that challenge conventional wisdom about post-COVID shifts in...
2023-06-20 14:19:00 ET Summary The latest rebound in equity prices has pulled the S&P 500 and Canada’s TSX back to levels seen two years ago in June/July 2021. In the real economy, Canada’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for May contracted 6.3% year-over-year and the...
2023-06-20 09:30:00 ET Summary The data has been coming in strong enough that the Fed could have delivered a rate hike in Wednesday’s meeting, but they chose not to. In the last couple of weeks, jobless claims have not just been higher than expected claims, but we're seeing...
2023-06-17 07:30:00 ET Summary The volume of lending and money that goes out to support real economic activity has decelerated slightly, but is still above pre-COVID trends. However, the price of that credit has gone up. If the Fed's dual policy persists - keeping rates where they...
2023-06-16 22:50:00 ET Summary Going into the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week, the over-under was a bit tighter than usual. The Summary Economic Projections showed the median projected Fed funds rate for 2023 to be 5.6 percent. If the SEP assumptions become rea...
2023-06-16 22:06:00 ET Summary The Committee released a new Summary of Economic Projections, which showed slow 2023 growth at 1.0%, though somewhat stronger than the 0.4% projected in March. Powell suggested that housing costs, among the key drivers of inflation now, have had a ve...
2023-06-16 21:10:00 ET Summary No one could have possibly been surprised by the Fed’s lack of action on Wednesday. They had signaled to anyone who would listen that they would pause. The official inflation figures have indeed moderated over the last year. As far as I ca...
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2024-05-29 00:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-09 13:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-20 13:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...