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2023-07-21 08:00:00 ET Summary The cyclical "inflation" up-swings and down-swings should become evident in commodity prices first and consumer prices last. While this price deflation could be viewed as a positive by those who are not within the ranks of the directly affected produ...
2023-07-19 21:37:00 ET Summary Strong equity returns in recent months reflect a shift in market focus towards the AI theme, earnings, and growth potential over the inflation and rates narrative. Market pricing is currently most aligned with a soft-landing economic scenario. Altern...
2023-07-19 21:05:00 ET Summary More good news on the inflation front: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew by only 0.2 percent in June. That corresponds to a 2.2 percent continuously compounded annual inflation rate, which is less than the 3.0 percent average rate over the last 12 ...
2023-07-19 08:30:00 ET Summary Inflation is not over, and the Federal Reserve will tighten again, despite the latest Consumer Price Index reading. Housing costs made up the largest portion of the latest CPI increase, and the optimists note that both rents and home prices have stop...
2023-07-19 05:04:00 ET Summary There is about an 18-month lag between changes in home prices and changes in the Owners' Equivalent Rent component of the CPI. The Fed needs to realize this now, and at the very least make it clear at next week's FOMC meeting that it plans no further...
2023-07-18 09:35:00 ET Summary The Consumer Price Index rose just 0.2% in June - and only 3% in the past 12 months - very close to the Fed’s 2% goal. Producer Price Index provided even better news, as it rose only 0.1% in June, the slowest rate in almost three years. Treasu...
2023-07-18 06:30:00 ET Summary Inflation dominated the headlines and there was widespread consensus among economists that a recession was imminent. The Fed has raised the Fed Funds rate multiple times this year, but those rate increases have clearly done nothing to slow the econom...
2023-07-18 05:20:00 ET Summary While we made it to fresh 2023 highs on the back of the good CPI numbers released last week, the stock market averages tended to make most of their gains in the pre-market session. The S&P 500 has already notably undercut the 50-day moving averag...
2023-07-17 21:09:00 ET Summary The annual U.S. CPI rate is, in part, benefiting from what economists call "base effects". Shelter costs account for nearly a third of the CPI. For the last six months, the month-over-month headline rate has been trending at just over 0.25%, or a...
2023-07-17 07:35:00 ET Summary Is the Fed responsible for the drop in the inflation rate? If not, what does that imply about future policy and inflation? The 10-year/3-month Treasury spread has been inverted since last year, and that has been a reliable predictor of recession in t...
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2024-05-29 00:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-09 13:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-20 13:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...