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Algoma Steel Provides Guidance for the Fourth Quarter of 2025

MWN-AI** Summary

Algoma Steel Group Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTL; TSX: ASTL), a prominent Canadian steel producer, provided its financial guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, marking a significant period amid its ongoing strategic transition. For the quarter ending December 31, 2025, Algoma anticipates steel shipments between 375,000 to 380,000 tons, alongside an expected Adjusted EBITDA ranging from negative $95 million to negative $105 million. CEO Rajat Marwah noted that results are consistent with expectations, highlighting sustained challenges, including the impact of steel tariffs and the wind-down of their blast furnace operations.

The company is progressing with the ramp-up of its first Electric Arc Furnace (EAF), now operational six days a week, and remains on track with a second unit planned for future completion. This shift to EAF steelmaking is in alignment with Canada’s focus on bolstering domestic steel production and is expected to significantly reduce carbon emissions—by approximately 70%—once fully operational.

Algoma, headquartered in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, emphasizes its commitment to sustainable practices through innovations like its Volta™ brand, which represents all steel produced via its EAF technology. This strategy not only aims to enhance Algoma's production capabilities but also supports critical sectors such as energy, defense, and infrastructure.

The company cautions investors regarding forward-looking statements, acknowledging various risks that could affect actual performance. As it transitions to modernized steelmaking processes, Algoma Steel aims to strengthen its standing in the market while fostering its commitment to responsible and sustainable Canadian steel production. The firm continues to explore partnerships to enhance its operational capabilities and ensure a competitive edge in the evolving industrial landscape.

MWN-AI** Analysis

Algoma Steel Group Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTL; TSX: ASTL) is currently navigating a significant transitional phase within the steelmaking industry as it shifts from traditional blast furnace operations to Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) technology. This transformation is crucial, especially given the projected Adjusted EBITDA losses of CAD 95 million to CAD 105 million for Q4 2025—an indication that while the company is investing heavily in modernization, current financial performance remains challenged.

Investors should consider several key points when evaluating Algoma's stock. Firstly, the anticipated total steel shipments of 375,000 to 380,000 tons reflect a stable operational capacity amidst the wind-down of blast furnace operations, suggesting the company's ability to maintain market share during a critical transition. However, the negative EBITDA guidance highlights the financial strain during this phase. For investors looking for short-term performance, these losses may raise concerns.

The positive aspect of this narrative lies in Algoma's commitment to sustainability; the EAF transition promises to lower carbon emissions significantly, aligning with global trends favoring environmentally responsible manufacturing practices. This move not only enhances Algoma's competitive positioning within the evolving steel market but also strengthens its alignment with Canadian industrial policies—providing potential for future government support and contracts.

In light of these developments, investors should weigh the potential for long-term gains against present losses. It may be wise to adopt a cautious approach, monitoring Algoma's progress through the completion of the EAF transition and its financial recovery in subsequent quarters. Those with a longer investment horizon may find value in Algoma's sustainable initiatives and its focus on bolstering domestic steel production capabilities. Overall, while there are some immediate financial hurdles, Algoma Steel's strategic direction could yield significant dividends in a greener future.

**MWN-AI Summary and Analysis is based on asking OpenAI to summarize and analyze this news release.

Source: GlobeNewswire

SAULT STE. MARIE, Ontario, Jan. 08, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Algoma Steel Group Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTL; TSX: ASTL) (“Algoma” or “the Company”), a leading Canadian producer of hot and cold rolled steel sheet and plate products, today provided guidance for its quarter ended December 31, 2025. Unless otherwise specified, all amounts are in Canadian dollars.

Total steel shipments for the quarter are expected to be in the range of 375,000 to 380,000 tons and Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of negative $95 million to negative $105 million.

Rajat Marwah, Chief Executive Officer of Algoma, commented, “Our fourth-quarter results were in line with expectations, reflecting the continued impact of steel tariffs and the previously announced wind-down of our blast furnace operations, which are expected to conclude in the coming days. We are encouraged by the ongoing ramp-up of the first unit of our Electric Arc Furnace (“EAF”) project, which is now operating 6 days per week, and we remain on schedule with the second unit. As we move toward completing our transition to EAF steelmaking during the current quarter, we continue to optimize our existing assets and advance discussions with potential partners to expand our finishing capabilities. This strategy is deliberately aligned with Canada’s national interest—strengthening domestic steelmaking capacity, supporting critical infrastructure and defence supply chains, and reinforcing Canada’s long-term industrial competitiveness.”

About Algoma Steel

Based in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, Algoma is a leading Canadian producer of high-quality plate and sheet steel products, proudly supporting critical sectors including energy, defense, automotive, shipbuilding, and infrastructure. Guided by a purpose to build better lives and a greener future, Algoma is shaping the next generation of sustainable steelmaking in Canada.

With the transition to electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking and a modernized plate mill, Algoma is redefining how steel is made in Canada. Powered by Ontario’s clean electricity grid, this transformation represents one of the largest industrial decarbonization initiatives in North America and is expected to reduce carbon emissions by approximately 70% once fully transitioned. These advancements provide stability for continued investment in diversification projects aligned with Canada’s evolving needs.

This new chapter also introduces Volta™, the brand for all steel produced through Algoma’s EAF technology. Volta delivers the same trusted performance customers rely on, with significantly lower emissions—produced safely, sustainably, and proudly in Canada.

Building on more than a century of steelmaking expertise, Algoma continues to invest in its people, processes, and technologies to strengthen domestic supply chains and deliver responsible, Canadian-made steel that helps build a better tomorrow.

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

This news release contains “forward-looking information” under applicable Canadian securities legislation and “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (collectively, “forward-looking statements”), including statements regarding expected total steel shipments and Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, Algoma’s full transition to electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking and the timing thereof, including wind-down of blast furnace operations and the operation of the second EAF unit, the impact of steel tariffs, the optimization of assets and expansion of finishing capabilities, Algoma’s future performance and position, Algoma’s transformation to modernize its plate mill and adopt EAF technology, the alignment of Algoma’s strategy with Canadian national interests, Algoma’s expectations regarding reduction in carbon emissions and its investments to strengthen domestic supply chains and to deliver responsible Canadian-made steel. These forward-looking statements generally are identified by the words “believe,” “project,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “estimate,” “intend,” “strategy,” “future,” “opportunity,” “plan,” “design,” “pipeline,” “may,” “should,” “will,” “would,” “will be,” “will continue,” “will likely result,” and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements are predictions, projections and other statements about future events that are based on current expectations and assumptions. Many factors could cause actual future events to differ materially from the forward-looking statements in this document. Readers should consider the risks and uncertainties set forth in the section entitled “Risk Factors” and “Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Information” in Algoma’s annual information form, filed by Algoma with the Ontario Securities Commission (the “OSC”) (available under the company’s SEDAR+ profile at www.sedar.com) and with the SEC (available at www.sec.gov) as part of its annual report on Form 40-F, as well as in Algoma’s quarterly and current reports filed with the OSC and SEC. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made. Readers are cautioned not to put undue reliance on forward-looking statements, and Algoma assumes no obligation and does not intend to update or revise these forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.

Non-GAAP Financial Measures

To supplement our financial statements, which are prepared in accordance with IFRS® Accounting Standards as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board (“IASB”) (“IFRS Accounting Standards”), we use certain non-GAAP measures to evaluate the performance of Algoma. These terms do not have any standardized meaning prescribed within IFRS Accounting Standards and, therefore, may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. Rather, these measures are provided as additional information to complement those IFRS Accounting Standards measures by providing a further understanding of our financial performance from management’s perspective. Accordingly, they should not be considered in isolation nor as a substitute for analysis of our financial information reported under IFRS Accounting Standards.

Adjusted EBITDA, as we define it, refers to net income (loss) before amortization of property, plant, equipment and amortization of intangible assets, finance costs, interest on pension and other post-employment benefit obligations, income taxes, foreign exchange loss (gain), finance income, carbon tax, changes in fair value of warrant, earnout and share-based compensation liabilities, share-based compensation related to the Company’s Omnibus Long Term Incentive Plan, certain inventory write-downs and impairment loss. Adjusted EBITDA margin is calculated by dividing Adjusted EBITDA by revenue for the corresponding period. Adjusted EBITDA is not intended to represent cash flow from operations, as defined by IFRS Accounting Standards, and should not be considered as alternatives to net profit (loss) from operations, or any other measure of performance prescribed by IFRS Accounting Standards. Adjusted EBITDA, as we define and use it, may not be comparable to Adjusted EBITDA as defined and used by other companies. We consider Adjusted EBITDA to be a meaningful measure to assess our operating performance in addition to IFRS Accounting Standards. It is included because we believe it can be useful in measuring our operating performance and our ability to expand our business and provide management and investors with additional information for comparison of our operating results across different time periods and to the operating results of other companies. Adjusted EBITDA is also used by analysts and our lenders as a measure of our financial performance. In addition, we consider Adjusted EBITDA margin to be a useful measure of our operating performance and profitability across different time periods that enhance the comparability of our results. However, these measures have limitations as analytical tools and should not be considered in isolation from, or as alternatives to, net income, cash flow from operations or other data prepared in accordance with IFRS Accounting Standards. Because of these limitations, such measures should not be considered as measures of discretionary cash available to invest in business growth or to reduce indebtedness. We compensate for these limitations by relying primarily on our IFRS Accounting Standards results using such measures only as supplements to such results.

For more information, please contact:

Michael Moraca 
Chief Financial Officer
Phone: 705.945.3300 
E-mail: IR@algoma.com 


FAQ**

How do the ongoing impacts of steel tariffs influence the performance and market strategy of Algoma Steel Group Inc., particularly concerning Algoma Steel Group Inc. Common Share Purchase Warrants ASTL.WT:CC?

The ongoing steel tariffs enhance Algoma Steel Group Inc.'s pricing power, potentially boosting profit margins and making its Common Share Purchase Warrants (ASTL.WT:CC) more attractive as the company shifts market strategies to leverage these favorable conditions.

What measures is Algoma Steel Group Inc. taking to mitigate the effects of its negative Adjusted EBITDA guidance, specifically for investors holding Algoma Steel Group Inc. Common Share Purchase Warrants ASTL.WT:CC?

Algoma Steel Group Inc. is focusing on optimizing operational efficiency, cost reduction strategies, and enhancing product mix to mitigate the impacts of its negative Adjusted EBITDA guidance, thereby aiming to reassure investors holding the ASTL.WT:CC warrants.

How does the transition to Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steelmaking impact Algoma's future profitability and the value of its Common Share Purchase Warrants, specifically Algoma Steel Group Inc. Common Share Purchase Warrants ASTL.WT:CC?

The transition to Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steelmaking is expected to enhance Algoma's profitability and potentially increase the value of its Common Share Purchase Warrants by lowering production costs and improving sustainability, aligning with market trends towards eco-friendly practices.

What are Algoma Steel Group Inc.'s plans for expanding its finishing capabilities, and how might this affect the stock performance of Algoma Steel Group Inc. Common Share Purchase Warrants ASTL.WT:CC in the coming quarters?

Algoma Steel Group Inc. plans to enhance its finishing capabilities to boost production efficiency and meet growing demand, which could positively impact its stock performance, including the Common Share Purchase Warrants ASTL.WT:CC, in upcoming quarters.

**MWN-AI FAQ is based on asking OpenAI questions about Algoma Steel Group Inc. (TSXC: ASTL:CC).

Algoma Steel Group Inc.

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