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I don't pretend to know how the Russia/Ukraine war will play out, but I can shed some light on how it has impacted the U.S. and Eurozone economies. Limiting Russia's ability to use the SWIFT payment system is a big factor reducing liquidity overseas. Whenever the market gets very ...
The Fed is confronted with the highest inflation setting in 40 years. Yield curve is rarely this flat heading into a prolonged rate hike cycle. With the yield curve being as narrow as it is currently, the question revolves around how fast it could actually become inverted. F...
At the moment, some variables are beginning to align that might be a sign of a recession on the horizon. Up until the Russian invasion into Ukraine, the market was nearly unanimous in thinking the Federal Reserve would increase the Fed Funds Rate by at least .25%, if not .50%. The...
In 2022, we have extreme uncertainty around the fundamental economic environment, the policy response, inflation and the response of policymakers. Although we are cautiously optimistic on the inflationary trajectory, when you look at the relatively low rate environment still, you ...
Inflation is money, therefore a true central bank should be able to judge whether or not there is too much. If there is, inflation’s going to be coming unless some intervention in the real money system. Instead, policymakers attempt to reverse-engineer their way into the inflat...
The equities rebound towards the end of January, from the initial swoon, was reversed last week, and at this point, a new low is all but certain. There are a number of things troubling equities. Geopolitics are a fickle catalyst for anything, but it has certainly added to the misery i...
I think the idea of a “surprise” inter-meeting rate hike is silly in the context of modern Federal Reserve operating procedures. Unless inflation cools a lot, the base case has to be that we are looking at 25 basis points per meeting (plus the wild card of a starting 50)...
The price of government bonds, particularly those with shorter maturities have declined considerably over the past seven months. Growth rates and future earnings are inextricably connected. Value companies often command much lower price to earnings ratios. For further detail...
The stimulus payments led to a short-term boost in PCE, corresponding with increased economic growth. However, stimulus-fueled activity has a dark side. Economic stagnation arrives as expected as the sugar rush of liquidity continues to fade from the system. When it comes to the s...
So far, the Dow is off 5.6% from the highs (transports are -12.0%), the S&P 500 is -7.8%. Ex-energy and financials, the S&P 500 is near -10%. The Nasdaq is -14%, and the economically sensitive Russell 2000 is -16.9%–the same level it was at the start of 2021. At the...
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CHICAGO and MILWAUKEE and NEW YORK, July 01, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Board of Trustees of the Tidal ETF Trust has decided to liquidate and close the AWTM Ultra-Short Duration Enhanced Income ETF (AWTM) (the “Fund”), based on the recommendation of the Fund’s inv...