Realized Returns Portfolio:  2024 Review And 2025 Outlook

2025-01-05 00:13:55 ET

Summary

• My retirement portfolio generated a record amount of realized gains for 2024, generating >$110k in tax-free income, and bringing my 4 year annual average income to $95.5k..
• I explain how I use high-yield funds and swing trading of stocks to grow the cost basis of my Roth retirement portfolio. I provide current Add, Hold, and Avoid ratings.
• Contrary to popular sentiment, I expect a down market for 2025 and explain why, but I also expect continuing gains regardless of the market's direction.
• I use price charts and economic cycles to guide my trading, focusing on divergence of prices from their post-Great Recession monthly means.

I start 2025 by wishing readers a Happy New Year and also success for your investing objectives this year!

2024 Market Progress and 2025 Expectations

With the close of 2024, investors are being cheered on by S&P 500 gains of >23% for the past 2 years. While that is true, that rosy view has a bit of recency bias because, if we back up just one more year to 2022, the average annual total return for the S&P 500 (using the ETF, SPY ) with dividends reinvested has actually only been +8.84% for the 3 years. The two years from 2022 through 2023 were net flat.

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