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The COVID-19 recession was an exogenous shock, which meant that it could be deep and painful but was unlikely to last very long. This meant that the probability of a deflationary (or disinflationary) recovery was unlikely. Credit contractions are inherently deflationary because they s...
In January 2020, the 10-year US Treasury had yield of 1.8%. The S&P 500 was on its way to a 4.6% gain and a new record high by February. Then, Covid-19 hit, and in the flight to safety that followed, the 10-year yield went below one-half of one percent. When you consider that low ...
The reflation theme is alive, well, and prospering. Fed Chairman Powell sees a long road to recovery, is not concerned about rising prices, and he plans to keep short-term rates low for a long time. And it's not just stocks that are benefiting. For further details see: R...
There is no alternative to stocks simply because rates are so low, close to zero, and stocks were the only place you could get a return over the past few years. There have been many times in the past ten years where the S&P 500 has yielded nearly 2%, while the 10-year US Treasury ...
The battle between bond traders and the Federal Reserve is starting to heat up as bond yields wrestle with crucial overhead resistance and the broad market continues in lockstep with bond yields. My rationale has been that as the Fed continues with QE the bond market has been showing ...
More tech-heavy momentum names underperforming the cyclical names sensitive to economic growth. Steepening yield curve indicates much stronger growth this year. Craig: With global cases falling and vaccine rollouts, likely to see a mini boom in summer time. For further detai...
While November 10 represented Pfizer's "stunning" vaccine announcement, it was also around that time jobless claims bottomed out therefore rising economic retrenchment risks. In early January, reflation was given another boost, allegedly, by the results of the Georgia Senate elections...
Last March was when Modern Monetary Theory was launched in Washington DC. The CARES Act provided $2 trillion of financial aid. As a result, the U.S. budget deficit mushroomed to $3.5 trillion in Fiscal 2020 - triple the previous record - while the Fed's holdings of U.S. Treasury secur...
After another Fed-induced yield curve inversion in August of 2019, the economy dipped into a recession at the end of 2020. Certainly, the pandemic shutdown contributed to the recession, but possibly the economy was headed in that direction anyway following the yield curve inversion. ...
In August 2020, the Congressional Budget Office projected a wide 6.6 percentage point gulf between actual and potential GDP in 2020. The CBO also in August 2020, projected that the output gap would persist for the entire decade. The latest February 2021 CBO projection now shows th...
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2024-06-20 03:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-09 12:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-02-07 19:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...