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The stakes are high as we head to 31st March. By then, the positive leeway the Fed gave to US banks on how to treat Treasuries and reserves comes to an end, unless the Fed decides to extend it. We think they will, but not with conviction. If they don't, there are $600 billion of T...
Without a doubt, the biggest story in bond-land, if not the financial markets in general, thus far in 2021 has been the spike in the U.S. Treasury 10-year yield. At this point, the federal government's financing needs reflect the baseline trillion-dollar deficit coming into this fisca...
Inflation has been gradually rising since 2Q20, but there will be a step change in March and April with the economy in a very different position to what it was 12 months before. Headline US inflation has risen from 0.2% year-on-year last May to 1.7% today, but it is barely halfway to ...
It should be no surprise that profit-maximizing speculators will seek the best risk-adjusted returns wherever and whenever they might perceive them. While the securities lending side of the financial world can be and most often is pliable, fungible, and, at times, horrifically forgivi...
US Treasury yields have dipped, but we doubt there is significant downside. The 5yr is on a cheapening trend, and there appears to be too much risk-on. We also highlight some technical drivers (US auctions, specialness and front-end debate) as we wind up for the ECB tomorrow again...
With no place to hide in fixed income, it is better to have more variable payouts on US oomph. Meanwhile, it is hard to read much into recent ECB purchase data. We see this as a confirmation that there is no consensus on further action against higher bond yields. Confidence in...
Amid ongoing debates about fiscal and monetary policy in February, global sovereign debt markets experienced a widespread sell-off for the second consecutive month. In Japan, the 10-year government bond yield climbed 11 basis points to finish at 0.16%, its highest closing point since ...
The money flowing from the central banks and governments has created the so-called "pent-up demand" and predictions of 5% or more GDP growth next year. But capacity utilization is down even while trillions of new dollars pour into the system. Inflation expectations are continuing to g...
A few sparks caused an explosive rise in market rates yesterday, but this should not obscure the fact that the bond market has been sitting on a powder keg since last week. Expectations are rightly for higher US rates, and it is logical for long-dated GBP and EUR rates to rise in tand...
When it comes to inflation, it's certainly true that copper is far more accurate with forecasts than the vast majority of economists. Copper price broke down in an epic fakeout last year before reversing and breaking out, in convincing fashion, to the upside. The recent breakout i...
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2024-06-20 03:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-09 12:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-02-07 19:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...