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The term premium is the difference between short- and long-term interest rates, and captures the market's expectations of future interest rates. It also contains a risk premium, or how much investors want to be compensated for taking on interest rate and inflation risk associated with...
U.S. Fed holds rates steady and reiterates no rate hikes through 2023. Colbourne: We're in a new Fed framework of Average Inflation Targeting (AIT). Colbourne: Expect to continue to see the U.S. dollar weaker particularly against the Canadian dollar. For further details see:...
Chair Powell glitched just a tad yesterday, but the accomodative promise remains resolute. The BoE is on a not too dissimilar wavelength, while the ECB is just a bit... well, stuck. All doves, but different types. The ECB needs to be a true dove. The Fed probably does not have to ...
Rising bond yields are creating uncertainty around equity valuations. The increase in VIX appears to be more contained versus previous market shocks but is masking violent rotation happening underneath. Xu: Active management is crucial in this part of the cycle. For further ...
No rate or QE change likely from the Fed - that's the easy bit. But will they hike the rate on excess reserves? Not expected (but they actually should). Will they extend the SLR break for US banks? They likely will (but probably shouldn't). Will the dot plot move? Likely not much....
Since we closed at a fresh 52-week high for both the 2-10 spread and the 10-year Treasury yield last Friday, further rises in long-term interest rates will likely cause a bigger rotation out of technology stocks and into financials, industrials and the energy sector. Banks absolutely ...
Real yields of reserve currency sovereign bonds are negative and the lowest ever. Bonds have been in a 40-year bull market that has rewarded those who were long and penalized those who were short, so the bull market has produced a large number of comfortable longs who haven't gotten s...
While attention is focused on rising yields and inflation expectations, Guggenheim Investments holds the out-of-consensus view that inflation is decelerating and will remain subdued."The release of CPI data for February last week showed that core inflation decelerated to just 0.7 percent on a...
Most of the selling pressure in the popular NASDAQ names and the hot Chinese ADRs can be traced to "thematic investing" ETFs that specialize in "disruptive technologies". This is not the first time that the ETF industry has inflated or deflated the price of hot stocks. However, as lon...
The inflation number has not gotten out of range, despite the breathtaking increase in the monetary base. The mainstream includes all causes of rising prices in their definition of inflation. We differentiate nonmonetary forces pushing up prices from the monetary forces pushing them d...
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2024-06-20 03:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-09 12:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-02-07 19:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...