Comparing BlackSky And Planet Labs: Which Satellite Company Leads The Long-Term Race

2026-02-11 09:33:54 ET

Thesis: Surveillance is my long-term 2026 pick

As you know, the surveillance and general Earth?observation industry is experiencing some pretty powerful tailwinds in 2026. Now, this is mainly due to two things: escalating geopolitical tensions and broad military modernisation efforts. So in recent times, we're seeing a lot of small cap defense player get a lot of stock momentum. This is true for AI defence systems, drones, rockets and even surveillance. There’s clearly a structural demand for rapid, actionable intelligence, and I feel that there are two names that, in the long run, should dominate this space. BlackSky ( BKSY ) and Planet Labs ( PL ) are rather uniquely positioned to catch these tailwinds. We’re seeing governments and defence agencies are increasingly investing in satellite?based reconnaissance as a pretty important component of national security. For instance, the global military satellite market is projected to fall in the range of $36 billion in 2025 and expand toward the $58 billion mark by 2030 at a roughly 10 % CAGR. In general, there's a heightened defence spending trend and space asset deployment worldwide. But unlike other defence products such as specific weapons or drones, the satellite surveillance space has far more applications outside of defense as we will see. The broader satellite reconnaissance services, which would include high?resolution optical and radar imaging, are expected to grow from about $16.5 billion in 2025 to a hefty $18.5 billion figure in 2026, driven mainly by growing intelligence requirements and the stickiness of getting real?time imaging as a product package....

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