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The Fed's surprise 75 basis point hike last week blew Treasury yields out, with a small reversal at the end of the week. Such a reversal is typical after large moves. Risk-free rates are literally the simplest instrument to price in finance, and so the rates market ends up being close...
The Federal Reserve panicked last week and spooked investors into the worst week for stocks since the onset of COVID in March 2020. For bonds to rally, we need rates to fall and that will only come with better inflation news and/or weaker economic data. It is a very uncertain time...
The combination of high and rising global inflation and the Russia-Ukraine war has been driving commodities higher. Continued supply constraints from the Russia-Ukraine war and a resurgence in China’s economy will most likely support commodity prices for the rest of this year a...
We could all be on the cusp of the most deadly inflation the world has ever experienced, due to a unique setup of global forces that have the power to accelerate that into happening in a surprisingly short amount of time. There is an obvious back channel by which inflation from Fed mo...
The year-over-year change in core CPI peaked in March and is coming down, albeit slower than we’d all like to see. The economy is slowing in some areas and inflation is still high but probably peaking. Bond yields are starting to look pretty attractive relative to stock div...
If you are an investor and sell every time your perception of uncertainty rises, you will avoid risk, but you will also miss opportunities. Our heightened state of awareness about uncertainty has us focused on the negative outcomes, assuming the worst-case scenarios will be realized. ...
Shell has a complex future. Many challenges lie ahead for management in the energy transition. Shell is still quantitatively cheap, especially compared to its U.S. competitors Chevron and Exxon. But, the company's oil reserves are in sharp decline. We believe that, at current pric...
Commodity prices have been skyrocketing, fueled by a confluence of factors, including a commodities super-cycle, the post-pandemic recovery, ongoing supply shocks, and geopolitical turmoil. There is one macroeconomic factor that does not appear to be driving commodity prices - Chinese...
The top ten ETF outflow leaders watched a combined $17.8B exit the door in May, with commodities among the most heavily represented groups. Beyond the commodity-related segments, the ETFs that led the exodus represented multiple other segments of the economy, including the financials and heal...
Money market funds and equity funds reported weekly inflows, while tax-exempt bond funds and taxable bond funds suffered outflows. Fears of inflation, continued supply chain issues, and a decline in consumer confidence have engulfed the market. Growth/value-large cap ETFs, equity ...
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2024-07-10 14:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-10 17:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-30 01:06:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...