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As the world reels from the crisis, the blowback is rippling across the world economy and markets. The current risk premia analysis implicitly recommends managing expectations down for GMI and other global multi-asset-class portfolios. The mean reversion factor is estimated as the...
Russia-Ukraine crisis: What's Putin's next move? A full regime change in Ukraine may be tougher than Putin thinks. Bond market surprise: Why didn't long bonds react to Russian attack? For further details see: Russia-Ukraine Crisis: What's Putin's Next Move?
The peak of central bank tightening expectations has likely passed. Major economies will continue to experience positive growth. Biggest sectoral impacts will likely be in commodity markets. For further details see: Russia's Invasion: 3 Implications For Fixed Income
Investment-grade bonds, as measured by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index, experienced negative total returns in 2021. The market is already pricing in five rate hikes over the next 12 months. While investors are right to be watching the Federal Reserve, inflation and the future o...
Events have moved quickly since our update on February 22. It’s unclear whether this is the shock and awe phase of a limited incursion or the beginning of a full-scale invasion that seeks regime change in Kyiv. USD/RUB touched 90 overnight before fading back to the mid-80s ...
Investors who think they have no macro exposure quite often are just unaware of what macro risks they are running. One complaint I have seen multiple times that people were annoyed that macro analysts were opining on the topic, despite a lack of qualifications in international relatio...
Non-U.S. markets, including EM, DM, and Asia, are outperforming the U.S. markets after underperforming last year. After slightly underperforming growth last year, value is where the money is flowing. With the economy still in growth mode, cyclical stocks should do better than defe...
Geopolitical headlines will have helped, but front-end rates have more reasons to ease back from extremes. In the US, the Fed mulling MBS sales offers an alternate tightening avenue, and in the UK, the BoE's pushback against aggressive pricing should find a more prominent platform nex...
The stock market can get a little crazy sometimes - out of control. The bond market is more in tune with the economy and takes a longer-term approach. The action in the bond market is telling us that there is trouble on the horizon. Credit spreads have increased, and the high yiel...
Investors that hold bonds to maturity earn the yield at which they purchased the security, and at maturity, they get paid face value. The US government issues its own currency and can always pay for anything with the Fed’s newly created money. Fixed income investors have go...
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2024-05-20 02:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-20 13:00:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-02-29 22:54:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...