Analyst sees further upside as CrowdStrike rallies on Q4 earnings

2026-03-04 13:48:48 ET

CrowdStrike Holdings (NASDAQ: CRWD) is extending gains on Wednesday after posting a high-octane Q4 earnings release that silenced concerns of artificial intelligence (AI) disruption .

The cybersecurity giant delivered a clean beat on both top- and the bottom-line, underscored by a historic milestone in annual recurring revenue (ARR).

Beyond immediate numbers, management’s aggressive guidance for fiscal 2027 suggests the much-feared “AI fatigue” in software hasn’t touched the Falcon platform.

And that confirmation made D.A. Davidson lift its price target on CrowdStrike stock on March 4.

Why D. A. Davidson is bullish on CrowdStrike stock

In a post-earnings research note, D. A. Davidson analysts said CRWD stock is strongly positioned to hit $455 this year, indicating potential upside of more than 13% from here.

Maintaining its “buy” rating, the investment firm noted CrowdStrike’s ability to accelerate net new ARR growth to 47% year-on-year – reaching a record $331 million in the quarter.

According to D. A. Davidson, it’s a definitive signal of market share gains. Its analysts highlighted the “Flex and Re-Flex” momentum, where customers aren’t just subscribing but rapidly expanding their commitments mid-contract.

With CRWD now exceeding the $5 billion total ARR milestone, D.A. Davidson believes its unique consumption model provides visibility into fiscal 2027 that its peers simply cannot match.

Deep dive: why Q4 earnings warrant buying CRWD shares

While the $1.31 billion revenue and $1.12 EPS captured headlines, the real story for CrowdStrike shares lies in the explosive adoption of Falcon Flex.

This subscription model – which allows clients to seamlessly swap and add modules – has reached $1.69 billion in ARR, growing over 120% year-over-year.

Moreover, the firm’s push into “Next-Gen SIEM” (Security Information and Event Management) is paying off handsomely, now representing 11% of total ARR with growth exceeding 75%.

This diversification proves that CrowdStrike is successfully evolving from an endpoint protection provider into a comprehensive security data platform, capturing larger “land-and-expand” deals that make the ecosystem stickier and more profitable.

How to play CrowdStrike Holdings after Q4 release

The investment thesis for CrowdStrike is shifting from a growth-at-all-costs narrative to one of sustained, profitable leadership in the AI era.

The company achieved its first-ever positive GAAP net income this quarter – a major “de-risking” event for institutional investors.

With $1.24 billion in annual free cash flow and a cash-rich balance sheet, CRWD has the “dry powder” to continue its strategic acquisition streak, such as the recent integration of SGNL for identity security.

As AI-driven cyberattacks shrink the “break-out time” for hackers from hours to minutes, the necessity for CrowdStrike’s automated, agentic security workforce becomes a non-discretionary expense for the Global 2000.

With an RSI indicating room for further upside, and a valuation supported by 25% operating margins, the path toward D.A. Davidson’s $455 price target looks increasingly clear.

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