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The volatility surrounding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to evolve. The absolute worst-case scenario - from both a human and economic cost perspective - would be that the fighting extends past the Ukrainian border. There will be continued economic and political unc...
Expensive gas from outside Russia, in my opinion, will worsen the already difficult situation with inflation in Germany. The cycle of increasing net earnings revisions we have seen in the course of 2021 already shows that the peak has most likely been passed. The DAX index is stil...
The peak of central bank tightening expectations has likely passed. Major economies will continue to experience positive growth. Biggest sectoral impacts will likely be in commodity markets. For further details see: Russia's Invasion: 3 Implications For Fixed Income
Safe haven flows have pushed 10Y Bund yields briefly towards 0.12%, but the 10Y US Treasury is already back close to 2% again. Such moves look moderate when compared to other markets and keeping in mind the gravity of the situation. There is a contrast between the ECB turning more cau...
The situation in Ukraine has escalated. This has massive implications for markets around the world. Commodities such as oil, gas, aluminum, and coal have risen sharply, as markets fear supply disruption. Some companies will benefit from these escalations, while other equities will...
Forecasting macro activity and managing expectations have become substantially more difficult. As the West imposes sanctions on Russia, the potential for a severe supply shock lurks – particularly for oil and natural gas. Macroeconomic risk will rise, perhaps leading to a n...
10Y US Treasuries and Bund currently hover respectively around 16bp and 9bp below their roughly 3-year highs. This does not suggest that the market assigns a high probability to a significant deterioration in the situation in Ukraine, but current levels reflect an unstable path between tw...
High inflation is putting the ECB under pressure to tighten monetary policy. The ECB seems bent on ending net asset purchases this year. The ECB will also have to cope with non-periphery redemptions not necessarily coinciding with the need to intervene in the periphery. For ...
European Central Bank looks a lot closer to normalising or tightening policy. The current energy crisis can hardly be tackled by monetary policy. Higher policy rates should not automatically put pressure on debt sustainability but an end to asset purchases and higher bond yields e...
Major central bank policies are diverging. Elevated exchange rate volatility may reflect the intensifying divergences. The U.S. Federal Reserve has provided guidance that it expects to end its asset purchases by March 2022, and then commence the process of increasing short-term intere...
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2024-07-20 21:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-10 18:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-10 06:20:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...