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A long-run real return is what you get over and above long-run inflation. In Europe, it's still negative. In the US, it's barely positive. Lower market yields of late have come from an easing in inflation expectations. But with real rates still so low, there is a natural pressure ...
DAX provides exposure to a basket of 40 German stocks. Over 60% of assets are invested in cyclical industries, which makes DAX extremely vulnerable in my opinion to any economic downturn. I believe we are at a tipping point for the German economy and the probability of a recession...
The new export orders index from S&P Global's PMI business surveys tracks foreign demand for both goods and services. In a manufacturing company, goods exports are readily quantified as those to be shipped to non-domestic customers. After the initial pandemic downturn in deman...
Vonovia has seen significant declines in its share price for the past few weeks, pushing its yield to above 5%. The market isn’t happy with Vonovia's new, more defensive approach. We disagree with that take, however, and view Vonovia as undervalued with a now-30% upside. It...
From copper to iron and aluminum, industrial commodities have been exhibiting a rather synchronized setback going back to the end of March, start of April. This despite supply bottlenecks and production shortfalls which continue to plague each. As with Eurobond prices and credit s...
The US 10yr real yield finally broke decisively into positive territory. The move looks and feels like a confident one. For now, the firming path is correlating with tighter financial conditions. The bulk of this so far has come from higher market rates feeding into wider retail and w...
Risk-off sentiment prevailed in Q1 2022 as geopolitical tensions flared and the Omicron variant became a stumbling block for many countries. The U.S.-based S&P 500 decreased by 4.6% in Q1 2022, outperforming both the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and MSCI All Country World Index. ...
Investors have been processing high inflation reports, rising interest rates, surging energy, commodity, and real estate prices. So, what is the market saying about which markets investors have favored the last couple of years vs where are they putting their money right now? A way...
If USTs are upside down, we shouldn’t expect to find outright contradictions elsewhere in places like Japan or Germany. Yields in Germany too have gone vertical over the past few months. Unsurprisingly, the higher Treasuries go, the more they tug on bunds (10s) and bobls (5s) a...
With global markets close to post-Ukraine war highs, we remain neutral on global equities. In the UK, the Bank of England is the outlier for now, raising interest rates by a further 0.25% but alluding to the possibility of an easier trajectory of rate increases as growth slows due to ...
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2024-07-20 21:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-10 18:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-10 06:20:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...