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It appears the U.S. economy may be falling into recession - the business cycle has not been eliminated. Valuations outside the U.S. continue to look relatively attractive versus the U.S., especially in Japan. Credit spreads rallied over the past month or so and are once again in l...
Elevated inflation, slowing global economic growth expectations, and reduced central bank liquidity remain the key economic considerations. The policy interest rate divergence between the U.S. and Europe is likely to increase amid heightened recession risk in Europe. We expect mar...
The time to buy the so-called "best investments to beat inflation" may be behind us now. The best investments for inflation, according to mainstream financial media, are TIPS, gold, commodities, real estate, and short-term bonds. Every one of these underperformed the S&P 500 in Ju...
Inventories have risen recently and there has been a lot of commentary about how this will negatively impact the economy. My brief overview of markets is that large growth stocks are still overvalued even as they led the recent rally. The sentiment about the economy is still quite...
Taylor Rule Rate is at the highest level in decades. Low LME inventories, indicating shortages in commodities. Household savings are at a high level compared to 2008. Inflation has become sticky. CAPEX is at a secular low level for commodities. As many investors ...
Most major economies are dealing with inflation highs not seen in decades. Market expectations of peak policy rates have declined since June, likely reflecting the significant slowdown in activity as well as recent commodity price declines. Tightening financial conditions as well ...
UUP has been in a long uptrend since June 2021. UUP is negatively correlated to U.S. equities and commodities. UUP is useful as a “safe asset” during equity markets risk-off. UUP – Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund Invesco DB USD Bullish ET...
A number of key markets are trading at pivotal technical levels going into the midweek Fed meeting. Charts are showing downward pressure on global yields, despite the market's belief that interest rates can only go higher. This is potentially a huge profitable trading opportunity ...
Despite being dragged down with most other asset classes in June’s selloff, resource equities have continued to exhibit remarkable resilience relative to broad equities, bonds and other real assets over the last year. Many resource companies - particularly in oil and gas explor...
The Fed is intent on raising interest rates to fight inflation and must balance the risk that creates for economic growth. In an analysis of growth versus value stocks using data since 1927, we found value had achieved greatest outperformance in periods of moderate to high inflation. ...
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On Thursday, May 2, the U.S. stock markets closed higher as investors evaluated the Federal Reserve’s dovish rate guidance and mixe...
On Wednesday, May 1st, the U.S. stock markets closed mixed after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and hinted at a possible future rat...
On Tuesday, April 30th, the U.S. stock markets closed sharply lower, influenced by economic reports indicating increasing labor costs and falling c...