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Financial markets remained turbulent through Q2 of 2022 as inflationary pressures, interest rate hikes, & ongoing war in Ukraine weighed on investor sentiment, & we've come to accept that the future will likely look different from the past. We now expect U.S. inflation to peak...
Because past hiking cycles differ in length, speed, and the context in which the tightening took place, we investigate the key differences as well as similarities that are likely to be important drivers of performance. Based on the three previous rate-hiking cycles, we believe there i...
Equities would suffer if rate hikes trigger a growth downturn. Europe has the opportunity to create a more sustainable and more resilient version of itself – replacing high dependencies on Russian energy and shedding the image of an “old” economy by accelerating t...
An investment in Nigeria or Turkey clearly exposes a firm or investor to more risks than an otherwise similar investment in Germany or Canada, but why? While country risk has so many dimensions to it, there is correlation across the many dimensions, with corruption, poor legal protect...
Last quarter, the Asset Allocation Committee adopted an underweight view on global equities and leaned more heavily into cash, commodities and other alternative, diversifying assets. The Committee’s views on real and alternative assets are unchanged this quarter. The Asset ...
In several emerging markets, rates at the shorter end of the curve are trading at the highest levels in 20 years. Several emerging market central banks have tightened policy rates significantly earlier and substantially more than their developed market counterparts. While most eme...
In contrast to some other market observers expecting a contraction in EM earnings in 2023, at the start of this year we highlighted the likelihood of a recovery driven by India and China. Factories are reopening, port bottlenecks are easing, and there are signs that supply chain disru...
We have upgraded inflation forecasts - and downgraded growth - and now expect global GDP to expand at a rate well below potential in 2023. Regardless of whether the economic slowdown meets the technical definition of a recession, the next few quarters aren’t going to feel good....
The global economic outlook has deteriorated sharply; we now expect GDP growth to be well below potential in 2023. While the near-term economic outlook is challenging, not all downturns are catastrophic - unlike those during the pandemic and global financial crisis. The economic o...
Growth is slowing, but it’s slowing to trend at this point. So not to zero, not to negative, but something like the trend that we’ve experienced over the last couple of decades. So, if you’re looking for a great way to play inflation, look to the small cap asset c...
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2024-07-10 19:54:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-20 07:52:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-30 13:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...